2017 · WC · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

26·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.092
  • 41.3%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.096EPA / rush+0.026
  • 8.9%Explosive rate12.4%
  • -2.85CPOE+4.74
  • 43.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.37
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:04416Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:5140Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:411458Missed field goal0–0
NOQ1 2:04280Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 1:46627Field goal3–7
NOQ2 14:121085Touchdown3–14
CARQ2 9:041154Field goal6–14
NOQ2 2:47875Touchdown6–21
CARQ2 0:43435Field goal9–21
CARQ3 15:00864Field goal12–21
NOQ3 10:58953Field goal12–24
CARQ3 6:053-3Punt12–24
NOQ3 3:4430Punt12–24
CARQ3 1:32868Touchdown19–24
NOQ4 12:47624Punt19–24
CARQ4 9:433-7Punt19–24
NOQ4 8:10562Touchdown19–31
CARQ4 5:08475Touchdown26–31
NOQ4 4:09728Turnover26–31
CARQ4 1:51926Turnover on downs26–31
NOQ4 0:0600End of half26–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton24/4034920
Derek Anderson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart11514.60
Cam Newton8374.60
Christian McCaffrey6162.70
Fozzy Whittaker133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen8121071
Christian McCaffrey681011
Devin Funchess48790
Kaelin Clay34320
Brenton Bersin22270
Ed Dickson1230
Russell Shepard0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3337621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara10232.31
Mark Ingram9222.40
Drew Brees1-1-1.00
Tommylee Lewis1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas891310
Ted Ginn461151
Josh Hill34491
Brandon Coleman45440
Mark Ingram11130
Alvin Kamara13100
Willie Snead1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14