Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.092
- 41.3%Success rate45.3%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.026
- 8.9%Explosive rate12.4%
- -2.85CPOE+4.74
- 43.2%Third-down rate38.5%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.37
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 24/40 | 349 | 2 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 12 | 107 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 101 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/33 | 376 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 9 | 131 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 6 | 115 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14