2018 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

23·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

-0.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.054
  • 46.3%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.41CPOE-1.39
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.96Points / drive2.05
  • 2.3%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:131086Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 7:11412Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:13853Field goal10–0
GBQ2 14:5639Punt10–0
CHIQ2 12:4839Punt10–0
GBQ2 10:133-8Punt10–0
CHIQ2 8:4757Turnover on downs10–0
GBQ2 6:44733Turnover10–0
CHIQ2 3:0035Punt10–0
GBQ2 1:4865Opp touchdown17–0
GBQ2 0:3918End of half17–0
CHIQ3 15:001245Field goal20–0
GBQ3 9:1418Field goal20–0
GBQ3 8:3911Field goal20–0
GBQ3 8:01937Field goal20–3
CHIQ3 3:3738Punt20–3
GBQ3 1:54891Touchdown20–10
CHIQ4 13:5939Punt20–10
GBQ4 11:52580Touchdown20–17
CHIQ4 9:011361Field goal23–17
GBQ4 2:39375Touchdown23–24
CHIQ4 2:131011Turnover23–24
GBQ4 0:5847Turnover on downs23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky23/3517100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard15825.50
Mitchell Trubisky7324.61
Tarik Cohen5255.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson47610
Taylor Gabriel55250
Jordan Howard55250
Tarik Cohen34160
Trey Burton15150
Anthony Miller23140
Dion Sims2390

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers20/3028630
DeShone Kizer4/75501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15473.10
Aaron Rodgers11515.00
Ty Montgomery273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb9101421
Davante Adams58881
Geronimo Allison58691
Ty Montgomery23210
Lance Kendricks11130
Jimmy Graham2480
Jamaal Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.64