Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.054
- 46.3%Success rate45.9%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.41CPOE-1.39
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.5%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.96Points / drive2.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 23/35 | 171 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 20/30 | 286 | 3 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 4/7 | 55 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 9 | 10 | 142 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64