2018 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

48·40

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -10

Total

50

Model margin

+3.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.156
  • 44.9%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.229EPA / rush-0.011
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +3.11CPOE+5.42
  • 46.7%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.94
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:00666Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:41468Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 9:411058Field goal7–10
TBQ1 4:25675Touchdown14–10
NOQ1 1:58474Touchdown14–17
TBQ2 14:54860Field goal17–17
NOQ2 11:123-1Punt17–17
TBQ2 9:421073Touchdown24–17
NOQ2 4:4212Opp touchdown31–17
NOQ2 4:27975Touchdown31–24
TBQ2 0:5523End of half31–24
TBQ3 15:00955Field goal34–24
NOQ3 11:2439Punt34–24
TBQ3 9:1339Punt34–24
NOQ3 7:34423Punt34–24
TBQ3 5:08474Touchdown41–24
NOQ3 2:58548Turnover41–24
TBQ3 0:26755Touchdown48–24
NOQ4 12:191255Touchdown48–32
TBQ4 8:54649Missed field goal48–32
NOQ4 4:52566Touchdown48–40
TBQ4 3:31311End of half48–40

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/2841740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber19693.60
Ryan Fitzpatrick12363.01
Shaun Wilson166.00
Jacquizz Rodgers210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans771471
DeSean Jackson551462
O.J. Howard22540
Chris Godwin Jr.34411
Adam Humphries35270
Jacquizz Rodgers1120
Freddie Martino0100
Cameron Brate0200
Alan Cross0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees37/4543930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara8293.62
Mike Gillislee393.00
Ted Ginn155.00
Jonathan Williams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas16171801
Alvin Kamara9121121
Ted Ginn56681
Benjamin Watson44440
Austin Carr22200
Josh Hill11150
Tre'Quan Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.09