2018 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -10
Total
50
Model margin
+3.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.156
- 44.9%Success rate49.9%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.229EPA / rush-0.011
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.2%
- +3.11CPOE+5.42
- 46.7%Third-down rate46.3%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.93Points / drive2.94
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/28 | 417 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Shaun Wilson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 7 | 147 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 5 | 146 | 2 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/45 | 439 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Mike Gillislee | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 16 | 17 | 180 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 12 | 112 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09