Closing spread
LA -13.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutAndre SmithTElbow· DNP
- OutOlsen PierreDTToe· DNP
- QuestionableHaason ReddickLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJermaine GreshamTEAchilles· Limited
- QuestionableMarkus GoldenDEKnee· Limited
Rams
- OutMike ThomasWRHip· DNP
- DoubtfulMark BarronLBAnkle· DNP
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.149
- 35.6%Success rate50.8%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.193EPA / rush+0.065
- 6.0%Explosive rate12.1%
- -7.13CPOE+1.24
- 29.0%Third-down rate45.0%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 0.92Points / drive2.63
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:25 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:18 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:48 | 4 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–8 |
| ARI | Q2 14:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–8 |
| LA | Q2 12:52 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 0–11 |
| ARI | Q2 8:07 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 0–11 |
| LA | Q2 4:18 | 9 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–19 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LA | Q3 12:39 | 4 | 58 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| ARI | Q3 11:06 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LA | Q3 5:49 | 5 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| ARI | Q3 3:39 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–27 |
| LA | Q3 2:23 | 7 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 0–27 |
| ARI | Q4 13:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–27 |
| LA | Q4 11:41 | 8 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 0–27 |
| ARI | Q4 7:57 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| LA | Q4 7:02 | 7 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–34 |
| ARI | Q4 3:17 | 8 | 35 | End of half | 0–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 17/27 | 90 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 24/32 | 354 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 9 | 159 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.70
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.18