2018 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

37·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.059
  • 44.3%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.58CPOE+0.63
  • 36.4%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.25
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
INDQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 11:17931Punt0–7
INDQ1 5:3520Opp touchdown7–7
INDQ1 5:193-9Punt7–7
HOUQ1 3:12552Touchdown14–7
INDQ1 1:45918Punt14–7
HOUQ2 14:12540Punt14–7
INDQ2 11:59622Punt14–7
HOUQ2 10:46420Punt14–7
INDQ2 8:5031Punt14–7
HOUQ2 7:181011Punt14–7
INDQ2 1:531-4Turnover14–7
HOUQ2 1:4728Touchdown21–7
INDQ2 1:08536Field goal21–10
HOUQ2 0:0200End of half21–10
HOUQ3 15:001784Touchdown28–10
INDQ3 6:39670Touchdown28–17
HOUQ3 5:14214Turnover28–17
INDQ3 4:3533Punt28–17
HOUQ3 2:42735Punt28–17
INDQ4 14:0316103Touchdown28–23
HOUQ4 7:41954Field goal31–23
INDQ4 2:58985Touchdown31–31
HOUQ4 0:45234Missed field goal31–31
INDQ4 0:0110End of half31–31
INDOT1250Field goal31–34
HOUOT1159Field goal34–34
INDOT628Turnover on downs34–34
HOUOT124Field goal37–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson29/4237521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller14493.50
Deshaun Watson6416.81
Alfred Blue13312.40
Keke Coutee2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10121691
Keke Coutee11151090
Will Fuller45491
Jordan Akins23240
Ryan Griffin11120
Sammie Coates11120
Alfred Blue0300

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck40/6246440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins8162.00
Andrew Luck3113.70
Nyheim Hines4102.50
Jeremy McNichols242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton461150
Chester Rogers811850
Ryan Grant57640
Nyheim Hines911632
Zach Pascal610561
Eric Ebron510401
Marcus Johnson23240
Mo Alie-Cox12170
Jordan Wilkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.69