Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.059
- 44.3%Success rate48.0%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.58CPOE+0.63
- 36.4%Third-down rate50.5%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.91Points / drive2.25
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 29/42 | 375 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 12 | 169 | 1 |
| Keke Coutee | 11 | 15 | 109 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 40/62 | 464 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 6 | 115 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 8 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 9 | 11 | 63 | 2 |
| Zach Pascal | 6 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 10 | 40 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69