Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play-0.020
- 50.0%Success rate43.4%
- +0.349EPA / dropback-0.009
- +0.018EPA / rush-0.040
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.64CPOE-0.98
- 47.8%Third-down rate33.1%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 3.03Points / drive1.60
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/45 | 304 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 19 | 121 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 12 | 78 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/33 | 245 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Heuerman | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.49