2018 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

27·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.236EPA / play-0.020
  • 50.0%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback-0.009
  • +0.018EPA / rush-0.040
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.64CPOE-0.98
  • 47.8%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 3.03Points / drive1.60
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:00651Field goal0–3
KCQ1 11:33947Field goal3–3
DENQ1 6:0332Punt3–3
KCQ1 4:3330Punt3–3
DENQ1 4:09732Punt3–3
KCQ1 0:121289Touchdown10–3
DENQ2 9:33578Touchdown10–10
KCQ2 6:37927Punt10–10
DENQ2 2:171160Field goal10–13
KCQ3 15:001177Field goal13–13
DENQ3 9:3210Turnover13–13
KCQ3 9:16628Punt13–13
DENQ3 6:381067Touchdown13–20
KCQ3 2:0539Punt13–20
DENQ3 0:30548Field goal13–23
KCQ4 12:471495Touchdown20–23
DENQ4 6:2730Punt20–23
KCQ4 4:351075Touchdown27–23
DENQ4 1:39947Turnover on downs27–23
KCQ4 0:1200End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes28/4530410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt191216.41
Patrick Mahomes372.31
Spencer Ware263.00
De'Anthony Thomas166.00
Tyreek Hill122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce712781
Demetrius Harris23590
Tyreek Hill913540
Kareem Hunt34540
Demarcus Robinson23310
De'Anthony Thomas12150
Chris Conley46130
Sammy Watkins0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum21/3324501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay12695.81
Royce Freeman8678.41
Emmanuel Sanders11818.00
Devontae Booker155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Heuerman47570
Courtland Sutton36510
Emmanuel Sanders57450
Demaryius Thomas47240
Matt LaCosse11170
Phillip Lindsay22100
Devontae Booker1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.49