Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+7.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.090
- 40.1%Success rate47.3%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.24CPOE+1.03
- 30.3%Third-down rate41.8%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.45Points / drive2.32
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/20 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 4/5 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 274 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 25 | 112 | 4.5 | 1 |
| James White | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 8 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 4 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.44