2018 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

7·38

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -6.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+7.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.090
  • 40.1%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.031
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.24CPOE+1.03
  • 30.3%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.32
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:00535Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:051464Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 5:2860Punt0–3
NEQ1 3:27512Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 1:2839Punt0–3
NEQ2 14:09662Touchdown0–10
MIAQ2 12:0142Punt0–10
NEQ2 10:47632Punt0–10
MIAQ2 7:4110Turnover0–16
NEQ2 7:36122Touchdown0–17
MIAQ2 7:2937Punt0–17
NEQ2 5:491680Touchdown0–24
MIAQ2 0:18322End of half0–24
NEQ3 15:0032Punt0–24
MIAQ3 14:064-1Punt0–24
NEQ3 11:50969Touchdown0–31
MIAQ3 6:49431Turnover0–31
NEQ3 5:131373Touchdown0–38
MIAQ4 13:433-8Punt0–38
NEQ4 11:39425Turnover0–38
MIAQ4 9:521375Touchdown7–38
NEQ4 2:42111End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill11/2010001
Brock Osweiler4/53510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore11413.70
Brock Osweiler177.00
Kenyan Drake331.00
Kalen Ballage133.00
Albert Wilson122.00
Ryan Tannehill100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills36400
Danny Amendola23210
Albert Wilson46190
Jakeem Grant22170
Frank Gore23161
Kenyan Drake12130
Mike Gesicki1290
Durham Smythe0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3527432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel251124.51
James White8445.51
Kenjon Barner3113.70
Cordarrelle Patterson11111.00
Brian Hoyer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White810681
Phillip Dorsett47551
Cordarrelle Patterson35541
Rob Gronkowski47440
Josh Gordon22320
Chris Hogan11250
Dwayne Allen12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.44