2018 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

33·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.093
  • 50.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.208
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.027
  • 12.1%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +1.24CPOE+7.30
  • 45.0%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.63Points / drive2.23
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
LAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:2934Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:5745Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 10:151084Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 4:30558Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 2:0055Punt7–7
LAQ2 14:48769Field goal10–7
SEAQ2 11:13450Touchdown10–14
LAQ2 9:11870Touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 6:02822Field goal17–17
LAQ2 1:55945Turnover17–17
SEAQ3 15:00975Touchdown17–24
LAQ3 10:34964Touchdown24–24
SEAQ3 5:04875Touchdown24–31
LAQ3 1:35669Touchdown30–31
SEAQ4 14:54710Punt30–31
LAQ4 10:34861Field goal33–31
SEAQ4 6:05648Punt33–31
LAQ4 3:28523End of half33–31

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3232112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley22773.53
Robert Woods25326.50
Jared Goff5153.00
Josh Reynolds11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods57920
Cooper Kupp69901
Josh Reynolds23390
Todd Gurley45360
Tyler Higbee24260
Gerald Everett33240
KhaDarel Hodge11140

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/2119830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson191166.10
Mike Davis12685.71
Tyler Lockett166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett34981
Nick Vannett34430
David Moore34382
Chris Carson11110
Mike Davis2270
Doug Baldwin1110
Brandon Marshall0100
Darrell Daniels0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.65