Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.093
- 50.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.208
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.027
- 12.1%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.24CPOE+7.30
- 45.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.63Points / drive2.23
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/32 | 321 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 9 | 90 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/21 | 198 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 98 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| David Moore | 3 | 4 | 38 | 2 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.65