Closing spread
LA -8
Total
52
Model margin
-5.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.019
- 50.8%Success rate44.8%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.054
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.135
- 12.1%Explosive rate11.4%
- +1.24CPOE-2.68
- 45.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.63Points / drive1.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/24 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 15/27 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 98 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.86
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.44