Closing spread
LA -8
Total
52
Model margin
-5.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutCooper KuppWRKnee· DNP
49ers
- OutDante PettisWRKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJimmie WardCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAhkello WitherspoonCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableK'Waun WilliamsCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePierre GarconWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRichard ShermanCBCalf· DNP
- QuestionableTrent TaylorWRBack· Limited
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.019
- 50.8%Success rate44.8%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.054
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.135
- 12.1%Explosive rate11.4%
- +1.24CPOE-2.68
- 45.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.63Points / drive1.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:58 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:58 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:34 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:39 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 1:13 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:00 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| SF | Q2 14:23 | 3 | -6 | Safety | 12–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:59 | 4 | 34 | Field goal | 15–0 |
| SF | Q2 10:05 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 15–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:17 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 22–0 |
| SF | Q2 2:30 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 22–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 22–7 |
| LA | Q3 12:52 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 25–7 |
| SF | Q3 8:06 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 25–7 |
| LA | Q3 6:59 | 3 | 27 | Touchdown | 32–7 |
| SF | Q3 6:04 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 32–10 |
| LA | Q3 2:37 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 32–10 |
| SF | Q4 13:44 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 32–10 |
| LA | Q4 12:13 | 2 | 13 | Touchdown | 39–10 |
| SF | Q4 11:35 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 39–10 |
| LA | Q4 9:12 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 39–10 |
| SF | Q4 5:20 | 6 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 39–10 |
| LA | Q4 3:24 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 39–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/24 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 15/27 | 170 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 98 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.86
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.44