Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
53
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.236
- 43.4%Success rate50.0%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.018
- 9.9%Explosive rate12.1%
- -0.98CPOE+4.64
- 33.1%Third-down rate47.8%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 1.60Points / drive3.03
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 23/34 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 78 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/34 | 303 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 8 | 9 | 107 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.73