2018 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

23·30

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

KC -8.5

Total

53

Model margin

+3.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.236
  • 43.4%Success rate50.0%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.018
  • 9.9%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -0.98CPOE+4.64
  • 33.1%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 1.60Points / drive3.03
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:3230Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:57881Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 7:401260Field goal7–3
DENQ1 2:181249Missed field goal7–3
KCQ2 11:41455Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 9:31613Punt7–10
KCQ2 5:18987Touchdown7–16
DENQ2 0:54575Touchdown14–16
KCQ2 0:0500End of half14–16
KCQ3 15:001072Touchdown14–23
DENQ3 10:1656Punt14–23
KCQ3 7:05432Touchdown14–30
DENQ3 5:121285Touchdown20–30
KCQ4 14:57211Turnover20–30
DENQ4 14:26420Turnover20–30
KCQ4 12:16513Punt20–30
DENQ4 9:20421Turnover20–30
KCQ4 8:0234Punt20–30
DENQ4 7:1036Punt20–30
KCQ4 5:033-4Punt20–30
DENQ4 4:00946Field goal23–30
KCQ4 1:48310Punt23–30
DENQ4 0:0411End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum23/3426221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay18955.31
Devontae Booker9788.70
Tim Patrick11313.00
Case Keenum199.00
Emmanuel Sanders1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton34780
Emmanuel Sanders44570
Demaryius Thomas37300
Matt LaCosse45290
Tim Patrick11241
Devontae Booker44230
Phillip Lindsay33170
Jeff Heuerman1541

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3430341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt16503.10
Patrick Mahomes2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins891072
Travis Kelce610791
Tyreek Hill34700
Kareem Hunt56361
Demarcus Robinson1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.73