2018 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

28·42

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -6

Total

55.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.067
  • 44.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.229EPA / rush+0.033
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +3.11CPOE+2.75
  • 46.7%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.20
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CARQ1 14:0238Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:3322Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:4336Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:34723Punt0–7
CARQ1 7:12888Touchdown0–14
TBQ1 3:14860Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 14:15575Touchdown7–21
TBQ2 11:203-14Punt7–21
CARQ2 9:01442Touchdown7–28
TBQ2 7:2441Turnover on downs7–28
CARQ2 6:26645Touchdown7–35
TBQ2 4:011270Touchdown14–35
CARQ2 0:1500End of half14–35
CARQ3 15:003-5Punt14–35
TBQ3 13:283-6Punt14–35
CARQ3 11:5335Punt14–35
TBQ3 9:451165Touchdown21–35
CARQ3 5:14838Turnover on downs21–35
TBQ3 1:46684Touchdown28–35
CARQ4 14:24990Touchdown28–42
TBQ4 9:04813Punt28–42
CARQ4 4:5236Punt28–42
TBQ4 3:4510Turnover28–42
CARQ4 3:37312End of half28–42

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick24/4024342

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber11312.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick5234.60
Jacquizz Rodgers2147.00
Adam Humphries177.00
Shaun Wilson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Humphries88822
O.J. Howard46532
Chris Godwin Jr.23400
DeSean Jackson24320
Mike Evans110160
Cameron Brate33150
Peyton Barber2390
Alan Cross0100
Jacquizz Rodgers23-40

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton19/2524720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey17794.62
Cam Newton11333.00
Curtis Samuel13333.01
DJ Moore13232.00
C.J. Anderson111.00
Alex Armah111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey56780
Greg Olsen66761
Devin Funchess45440
Curtis Samuel24251
DJ Moore12160
Jarius Wright1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.45