2018 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
CAR -6
Total
55.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.067
- 44.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.229EPA / rush+0.033
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +3.11CPOE+2.75
- 46.7%Third-down rate42.1%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 1.93Points / drive2.20
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24/40 | 243 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Wilson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 8 | 8 | 82 | 2 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 6 | 53 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/25 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45