Closing spread
LA -10
Total
51
Model margin
+1.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.149
- 44.2%Success rate50.8%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.027EPA / rush+0.065
- 11.2%Explosive rate12.1%
- +7.30CPOE+1.24
- 38.7%Third-down rate45.0%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.23Points / drive2.63
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/26 | 176 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 12 | 108 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 92 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| David Moore | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 28/39 | 318 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 120 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 10 | 12 | 100 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 89 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59