Closing spread
NE -13
Total
46.5
Model margin
-5.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.130
- 47.3%Success rate37.1%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.196
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.03CPOE-5.42
- 41.8%Third-down rate32.2%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 2.32Points / drive1.47
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/31 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 21 | 133 | 6.3 | 1 |
| James White | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 6 | 12 | 66 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.26