2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

27·13

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -13

Total

46.5

Model margin

-5.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.130
  • 47.3%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.196
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.03CPOE-5.42
  • 41.8%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.47
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00730Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:28747Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:07965Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 4:02685Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 1:11424Punt7–7
NEQ2 14:02947Punt7–7
NYJQ2 8:57315Punt7–7
NEQ2 7:251159Field goal10–7
NYJQ2 2:27241Turnover10–7
NEQ2 1:5238Punt10–7
NYJQ2 0:51320Field goal10–10
NEQ2 0:0300End of half10–10
NEQ3 15:001476Field goal13–10
NYJQ3 8:341250Field goal13–13
NEQ3 4:00475Touchdown20–13
NYJQ3 1:52732Punt20–13
NEQ4 13:231073Touchdown27–13
NYJQ4 8:5434Punt27–13
NEQ4 7:2732Punt27–13
NYJQ4 5:151357Turnover on downs27–13
NEQ4 1:52227End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3128320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel211336.31
James White9738.10
Cordarrelle Patterson5102.00
Tom Brady1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman45841
Josh Gordon55700
Rob Gronkowski37561
Chris Hogan22470
Sony Michel22120
Phillip Dorsett22100
James White1550
Cordarrelle Patterson12-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown26/4527611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell6305.00
Josh McCown3258.30
Elijah McGuire6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa44730
Jermaine Kearse612661
Chris Herndon78570
Isaiah Crowell34300
Jordan Leggett24240
Robbie Chosen25220
Elijah McGuire1370
Trenton Cannon11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -133.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.4%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.26