2018 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·24

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

52

Model margin

+1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.045
  • 48.0%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.165
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.229
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +2.75CPOE+3.11
  • 42.1%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.93
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:463-6Turnover0–7
TBQ1 8:1133Field goal0–10
CARQ1 6:41569Touchdown7–10
TBQ1 4:14411Punt7–10
CARQ1 1:43526Punt7–10
TBQ2 14:03779Turnover7–10
CARQ2 9:51413Punt7–10
TBQ2 6:554-3Punt7–10
CARQ2 4:14750Turnover7–10
TBQ2 1:05642Touchdown7–17
CARQ2 0:1300End of half7–17
CARQ3 15:00966Field goal10–17
TBQ3 10:581031Touchdown10–24
CARQ3 7:231092Touchdown17–24
TBQ3 2:241051Punt17–24
CARQ4 12:24443Turnover17–24
TBQ4 10:43418Punt17–24
CARQ4 8:44843Turnover17–24
TBQ4 5:1135Punt17–24
CARQ4 4:07731Turnover on downs17–24
TBQ4 2:2133Punt17–24
CARQ4 1:05718End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton28/4130024
Taylor Heinicke0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey1010610.60
Cam Newton6335.50
DJ Moore22110.50
Curtis Samuel188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel611880
Christian McCaffrey910551
Ian Thomas55460
Jarius Wright23440
DJ Moore48440
Greg Olsen11130
Devin Funchess13101

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston20/3024920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jameis Winston5489.60
Peyton Barber16452.81
Ronald Jones420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.561011
Adam Humphries79611
Mike Evans46480
Cameron Brate36360
Alan Cross1130
Peyton Barber0100
Justin Watson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.25