2018 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.045
- 48.0%Success rate44.9%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.165
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.229
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.75CPOE+3.11
- 42.1%Third-down rate46.7%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.20Points / drive1.93
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 28/41 | 300 | 2 | 4 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 106 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 20/30 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 16 | 45 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25