2018 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

24·21

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.032
  • 48.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.63CPOE+4.58
  • 50.5%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
INDQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:2738Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:2835Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:463-6Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:1038Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:351168Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 2:26312Punt0–7
HOUQ1 0:53433Punt0–7
INDQ2 14:051261Turnover0–7
HOUQ2 9:323-9Punt0–7
INDQ2 7:19264Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 6:3335Punt7–7
INDQ2 5:13566Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 2:57415Punt14–7
INDQ2 1:14953Field goal17–7
HOUQ3 15:001775Touchdown17–14
INDQ3 7:38875Touchdown24–14
HOUQ3 3:511132Punt24–14
INDQ4 14:05837Punt24–14
HOUQ4 9:49629Punt24–14
INDQ4 6:41431Punt24–14
HOUQ4 4:30765Touchdown24–21
INDQ4 2:37421End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck27/4139921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack14332.41
Andrew Luck6162.70
Nyheim Hines310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton9121990
Zach Pascal56681
Eric Ebron48651
Chester Rogers56360
Nyheim Hines35160
Ryan Grant11150
Erik Swoope0100
Marlon Mack0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson27/3826710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson5357.00
Lamar Miller14332.41
Alfred Blue6213.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin55800
Demaryius Thomas46480
Jordan Akins22400
DeAndre Hopkins410361
Lamar Miller56190
Joe Webb23130
Alfred Blue0100
DeAndre Carter1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.79