Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.032
- 48.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.63CPOE+4.58
- 50.5%Third-down rate36.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 2.25Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 27/41 | 399 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9 | 12 | 199 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 27/38 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 5 | 5 | 80 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 10 | 36 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79