Closing spread
NE -8.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.111
- 47.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.128
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.03CPOE-0.24
- 41.8%Third-down rate30.3%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 2.32Points / drive1.45
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/43 | 358 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 8 | 107 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 14/19 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 60 | 30.0 | 2 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 8 | 9 | 135 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 55 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.96