2018 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

33·34

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -8.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-4.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.111
  • 47.3%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.128
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.03CPOE-0.24
  • 41.8%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.45
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:001275Touchdown6–0
MIAQ1 8:13575Touchdown6–7
NEQ1 5:3237Punt6–7
MIAQ1 3:2450Punt6–7
NEQ1 1:18518Touchdown13–7
MIAQ2 14:14275Touchdown13–14
NEQ2 13:26770Touchdown20–14
MIAQ2 10:32675Touchdown20–21
NEQ2 7:28875Touchdown27–21
MIAQ2 3:493-2Punt27–21
NEQ2 1:5138Punt27–21
MIAQ2 0:513-19Punt27–21
NEQ2 0:3056End of half27–21
MIAQ3 15:00720Punt27–21
NEQ3 10:361149Missed field goal27–21
MIAQ3 6:21563Touchdown27–28
NEQ3 3:58830Punt27–28
MIAQ4 14:54738Punt27–28
NEQ4 10:28850Field goal30–28
MIAQ4 6:45418Punt30–28
NEQ4 4:261133Field goal33–28
MIAQ4 0:16169Touchdown33–34

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/4335830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel20572.90
James White4133.30
Tom Brady133.00
Rex Burkhead420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski881071
Josh Gordon59960
Julian Edelman912861
Cordarrelle Patterson23511
James White24150
Rex Burkhead1230
Chris Hogan0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill14/1926530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12927.70
Brandon Bolden26030.02
Kenyan Drake6244.00
Ryan Tannehill11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills891351
Kenyan Drake11551
Frank Gore11240
Brice Butler11231
DeVante Parker14180
Danny Amendola11100
Brandon Bolden1100
Mike Gesicki0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.96