2018 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

28·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NO -8.5

Total

55

Model margin

-0.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.045
  • 49.9%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.229
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +5.42CPOE+3.11
  • 46.3%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.94Points / drive1.93
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
TBQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 12:19835Punt0–7
TBQ1 8:14923Punt0–7
NOQ1 4:2536Punt0–7
TBQ1 1:431147Missed field goal0–7
NOQ2 11:17852Field goal3–7
TBQ2 7:06729Punt3–7
NOQ2 4:18412Turnover3–7
TBQ2 2:22624Touchdown3–14
NOQ2 0:2600End of half3–14
NOQ3 15:0021Turnover3–14
TBQ3 14:1435Missed field goal3–14
NOQ3 12:5039Punt3–14
TBQ3 10:42933Punt3–14
NOQ3 7:18530Touchdown11–14
TBQ3 4:433-13Punt11–14
NOQ3 2:211051Touchdown18–14
TBQ4 11:4634Punt18–14
NOQ4 10:34753Touchdown25–14
TBQ4 7:2653Punt25–14
NOQ4 5:321151Field goal28–14
TBQ4 1:12749Turnover28–14
NOQ4 0:0100End of half28–14

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3120111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13524.01
Alvin Kamara12514.30
Drew Brees3-1-0.31
Taysom Hill1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas1113980
Alvin Kamara56360
Benjamin Watson33240
Keith Kirkwood22210
Tommylee Lewis11200
Mark Ingram1310
Josh Hill0100
Tre'Quan Smith0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/3821321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jameis Winston5479.40
Peyton Barber14423.00
Jacquizz Rodgers4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans46860
Adam Humphries48420
Jacquizz Rodgers45380
Chris Godwin Jr.110130
Cameron Brate24122
Antony Auclair11120
Bobo Wilson1180
Peyton Barber1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

47.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.63