2018 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
NO -8.5
Total
55
Model margin
-0.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.045
- 49.9%Success rate44.9%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.229
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- +5.42CPOE+3.11
- 46.3%Third-down rate46.7%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.94Points / drive1.93
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/31 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 11 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/38 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 10 | 13 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.63