Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.039
- 45.9%Success rate46.3%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.39CPOE+2.41
- 36.5%Third-down rate41.4%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 2.05Points / drive1.96
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/42 | 274 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 12 | 55 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 13 | 119 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/28 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12