Closing spread
NO -6
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.067
- 49.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.284EPA / dropback+0.086
- -0.011EPA / rush+0.033
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +5.42CPOE+2.75
- 46.3%Third-down rate42.1%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 2.94Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/35 | 203 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/29 | 131 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1/1 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10