2018 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

12·9

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.067
  • 49.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.284EPA / dropback+0.086
  • -0.011EPA / rush+0.033
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +5.42CPOE+2.75
  • 46.3%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
  • 2.94Points / drive2.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:00825Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:43740Punt0–0
CARQ1 7:26775Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 4:02423Field goal3–7
CARQ1 2:1639Punt3–7
NOQ1 0:461274Field goal6–7
CARQ2 9:5669Punt6–7
NOQ2 6:42835Punt6–7
CARQ2 3:143-5Punt6–7
NOQ2 2:0824Turnover6–7
CARQ2 1:46629Turnover6–7
NOQ2 0:1200End of half6–7
NOQ3 15:00614Punt6–7
CARQ3 12:3533Punt6–7
NOQ3 11:30713Punt6–7
CARQ3 7:36857Turnover6–7
NOQ3 3:251266Touchdown12–9
CARQ4 12:12726Punt12–9
NOQ4 8:511479Turnover12–9
CARQ4 1:44619Turnover on downs12–9
NOQ4 0:3500End of half12–9

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3520301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara14674.81
Mark Ingram12635.30
Taysom Hill11717.00
Tommylee Lewis144.00
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas79490
Keith Kirkwood22400
Alvin Kamara79360
Benjamin Watson12280
Josh Hill23240
Tre'Quan Smith24150
Mark Ingram22110
Taysom Hill0100
Dan Arnold0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2913101
Christian McCaffrey1/15010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey15533.50
DJ Moore12222.00
Cam Newton5153.00
Curtis Samuel284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey811670
Chris Manhertz12501
Jarius Wright34210
Curtis Samuel14170
Ian Thomas24140
DJ Moore23120
Devin Funchess0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.10