Closing spread
NO -8
Total
42
Model margin
-3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.156
- 48.0%Success rate49.9%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.284
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.011
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- +2.75CPOE+5.42
- 42.1%Third-down rate46.3%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 2.20Points / drive2.94
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 16/27 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 2/3 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14/22 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Washington | 11 | 108 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-7.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.63