2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

33·14

Saints

New Orleans

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -8

Total

42

Model margin

-3.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.156
  • 48.0%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.284
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.011
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +2.75CPOE+5.42
  • 42.1%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.94
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
CARQ1 15:001079Touchdown6–0
CARQ1 10:1711Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 10:0400Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 10:04538Punt7–0
CARQ1 6:581050Touchdown13–0
NOQ1 2:071365Turnover on downs13–0
CARQ2 9:451785Touchdown20–0
NOQ2 2:003-8Punt20–0
CARQ2 1:28736Field goal23–0
NOQ3 15:00519Punt23–0
CARQ3 12:0630Punt23–0
NOQ3 10:3133Punt23–0
CARQ3 8:5130Punt23–0
NOQ3 7:2232Punt23–0
CARQ3 6:20575Touchdown30–0
NOQ3 3:461085Touchdown30–7
CARQ4 13:28937Field goal33–7
NOQ4 8:17314Turnover33–7
CARQ4 6:4849Turnover on downs33–7
NOQ4 5:10457Touchdown33–14
CARQ4 3:4732Punt33–14
NOQ4 1:48319End of half33–14

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen16/2722820
Garrett Gilbert2/34000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cameron Artis-Payne16563.51
Kyle Allen5193.81
Christian McCaffrey4184.50
Travaris Cadet11171.50
Alex Armah111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore48810
Curtis Samuel24721
Ian Thomas57611
Christian McCaffrey11220
Jarius Wright24200
Travaris Cadet1150
Alex Armah1150
Cameron Artis-Payne2220
Torrey Smith0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater14/2211811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dwayne Washington111089.80
Mark Ingram5285.60
Teddy Bridgewater4123.00
Taysom Hill3113.71
Tommylee Lewis166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre'Quan Smith34301
Benjamin Watson23290
Michael Thomas57290
Mark Ingram22150
Tommylee Lewis11120
Taysom Hill1130
Josh Hill0100
Austin Carr0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.01
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.63