2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

3·38

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -14

Total

47

Model margin

+7.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.090
  • 37.1%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.031
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -5.42CPOE+1.03
  • 32.2%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.32
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:00725Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:163-1Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:16959Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:16956Field goal3–7
NEQ1 0:54780Touchdown3–14
NYJQ2 12:531-3Turnover3–14
NEQ2 12:4379Touchdown3–21
NYJQ2 11:031066Turnover on downs3–21
NEQ2 4:28859Turnover on downs3–21
NYJQ2 0:251-10End of half3–21
NYJQ3 15:0030Punt3–21
NEQ3 13:1140Punt3–21
NYJQ3 12:2247Opp touchdown3–28
NYJQ3 10:481169Turnover on downs3–28
NEQ3 5:05634Punt3–28
NYJQ3 1:14624Punt3–28
NEQ4 12:33545Field goal3–31
NYJQ4 9:4030Punt3–31
NEQ4 8:321169Touchdown3–38
NYJQ4 3:26418Punt3–38
NEQ4 2:151-2Punt3–38
NYJQ4 0:24113Turnover3–38
NEQ4 0:1500End of half3–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2816700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah McGuire18412.30
Sam Darnold12828.00
De'Angelo Henderson Sr.2199.50
Trenton Cannon2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deontay Burnett55730
Andre Roberts34280
Robbie Chosen38240
Elijah McGuire22240
Chris Herndon1380
Jordan Leggett1470
J.J. Jones1130
Trenton Cannon0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3325040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel14503.60
James White4307.50
Julian Edelman22412.00
Phillip Dorsett2168.00
Rex Burkhead5142.80
Brian Hoyer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman56691
Chris Hogan611640
James White45391
Phillip Dorsett55341
Rob Gronkowski22240
Rex Burkhead12181

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.0%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.64