Closing spread
NE -14
Total
47
Model margin
+7.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.090
- 37.1%Success rate47.3%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- -5.42CPOE+1.03
- 32.2%Third-down rate41.8%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.47Points / drive2.32
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/28 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| De'Angelo Henderson Sr. | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deontay Burnett | 5 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| J.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/33 | 250 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 6 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 5 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.0%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.64