2018 · WC · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

21·7

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -2

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.032
  • 48.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.63CPOE+4.58
  • 50.5%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
INDQ1 15:001070Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 10:3239Punt7–0
INDQ1 9:28975Touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 4:031030Turnover14–0
INDQ1 0:23633Turnover14–0
HOUQ2 12:2049Punt14–0
INDQ2 9:47765Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 6:241169Turnover on downs21–0
INDQ2 1:20934End of half21–0
HOUQ3 15:00417Punt21–0
INDQ3 13:41616Punt21–0
HOUQ3 10:3538Punt21–0
INDQ3 9:05310Punt21–0
HOUQ3 8:07826Punt21–0
INDQ3 4:34538Punt21–0
HOUQ3 2:101689Touchdown21–7
INDQ4 10:57630Punt21–7
HOUQ4 7:591165Turnover on downs21–7
INDQ4 4:09654End of half21–7

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck19/3222221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack241486.21
Andrew Luck8293.60
Zach Pascal11414.00
Jordan Wilkins294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton510850
Dontrelle Inman44531
Chester Rogers45460
Eric Ebron36261
Zach Pascal1360
Marlon Mack2360

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson29/4923511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson8769.50
Lamar Miller5183.60
Alfred Blue284.00
D'Onta Foreman133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keke Coutee11141101
Lamar Miller810630
DeAndre Hopkins510370
Alfred Blue22110
Jordan Akins2380
Ryan Griffin1560
D'Onta Foreman0100
Vyncint Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.79