Closing spread
NE -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.023
- 42.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.06CPOE-2.62
- 39.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.56
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/39 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 8 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/28 | 153 | 0 | 3 |
| Matt Barkley | 9/16 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 13 | 75 | 0 |
| John Brown | 5 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.52