Closing spread
NE -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRChest· Limited
- QuestionableMarshall NewhouseTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableMatt LaCosseTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMichael BennettDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableNate EbnerSGroin· Limited
- QuestionableRex BurkheadRBFoot· Limited
- LimitedTom BradyQBCalf
Bills
- OutCorey ThompsonLBAnkle· DNP
- OutTyler KroftTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDevin SingletaryRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableIsaiah McKenzieWRAnkle· Full
- QuestionableJon FelicianoGNeck· Full
- QuestionableMaurice AlexanderLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableRobert FosterWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableSpencer LongCAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTaron JohnsonCBHamstring· Limited
- DNPCole BeasleyWRRest
- DNPFrank GoreRBRest
- DNPJerry HughesDERest
- DNPJohn BrownWRRest
- DNPLorenzo AlexanderLBRest
- DNPTy NsekheTRest
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.023
- 42.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.06CPOE-2.62
- 39.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.56
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:17 | 8 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:32 | 7 | 50 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| BUF | Q1 7:35 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q1 6:22 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 13–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q1 1:32 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| NE | Q1 0:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 14:37 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 13–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:27 | 17 | 76 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 4:08 | 5 | 47 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| NE | Q2 1:55 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–3 |
| BUF | Q2 1:32 | 6 | 37 | Missed field goal | 13–3 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| NE | Q3 10:37 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–10 |
| BUF | Q3 9:00 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| NE | Q3 6:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| BUF | Q3 5:27 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| NE | Q3 3:57 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| BUF | Q3 0:58 | 11 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 16–10 |
| NE | Q4 10:44 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 16–10 |
| BUF | Q4 9:13 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 16–10 |
| NE | Q4 8:35 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 16–10 |
| BUF | Q4 7:36 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 16–10 |
| NE | Q4 5:19 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 16–10 |
| BUF | Q4 3:09 | 6 | 47 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| NE | Q4 1:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/39 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 8 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/28 | 153 | 0 | 3 |
| Matt Barkley | 9/16 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 13 | 75 | 0 |
| John Brown | 5 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.52