Closing spread
KC -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play-0.054
- 47.0%Success rate40.3%
- +0.247EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.86CPOE-2.47
- 48.7%Third-down rate32.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 2.59Points / drive1.47
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 10/19 | 117 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10/11 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/34 | 213 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.63