2019 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

30·6

Broncos

Denver

QB Joe Flacco

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.135EPA / play-0.054
  • 47.0%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.86CPOE-2.47
  • 48.7%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.47
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:001155Touchdown0–6
KCQ1 9:06875Touchdown7–6
DENQ1 4:104-6Punt7–6
KCQ1 2:3136Field goal10–6
DENQ1 1:0058Turnover on downs10–6
KCQ2 14:541237Field goal13–6
DENQ2 8:012-20Opp touchdown20–6
DENQ2 7:10748Missed field goal20–6
KCQ2 3:054-4Punt20–6
DENQ2 1:02639Punt20–6
KCQ2 0:0500End of half20–6
KCQ3 15:00610Punt20–6
DENQ3 12:50519Punt20–6
KCQ3 10:02926Punt20–6
DENQ3 6:1339Punt20–6
KCQ3 5:00273Touchdown27–6
DENQ3 4:2032Punt27–6
KCQ3 3:32614Punt27–6
DENQ3 0:50920Punt27–6
KCQ4 12:0730Punt27–6
DENQ4 10:04616Turnover on downs27–6
KCQ4 8:10430Field goal30–6
DENQ4 5:0448Punt30–6
KCQ4 3:1635Punt30–6
DENQ4 1:0127End of half30–6

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore10/1911710
Patrick Mahomes10/117610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy12645.30
Damien Williams970.80
Patrick Mahomes122.00
Darrel Williams210.50
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill35741
Travis Kelce68440
Demarcus Robinson35310
Mecole Hardman23281
LeSean McCoy22120
Darrel Williams2250
Blake Bell0100
Damien Williams23-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/3421300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay11363.30
Royce Freeman10353.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton68870
Emmanuel Sanders56600
Royce Freeman45320
Noah Fant1570
Diontae Spencer1150
DaeSean Hamilton2540
Phillip Lindsay11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.63