Closing spread
NO -10
Total
46
Model margin
+7.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.084
- 43.3%Success rate47.0%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.45CPOE+3.92
- 32.4%Third-down rate43.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.56Points / drive2.45
- 2.9%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 23/36 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 9 | 126 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/39 | 311 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 11 | 101 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 6 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.97