2019 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

31·34

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -10

Total

46

Model margin

+7.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSaints
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.084
  • 43.3%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.172
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -2.45CPOE+3.92
  • 32.4%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.45
  • 2.9%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–NO
NOQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:3938Punt0–7
NOQ1 9:03414Punt0–7
NOQ1 6:42427Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 5:12475Touchdown6–14
NOQ1 3:08852Field goal6–17
CARQ2 13:341047Field goal9–17
NOQ2 8:0949Punt9–17
CARQ2 6:301753Touchdown15–17
CARQ3 15:0034Punt15–17
NOQ3 13:58647Touchdown15–24
CARQ3 11:18836Field goal18–24
NOQ3 8:36775Touchdown18–31
CARQ3 5:09771Touchdown24–31
NOQ3 1:28421Punt24–31
CARQ4 14:1030Punt24–31
NOQ4 13:2830Turnover24–31
CARQ4 12:26721Touchdown31–31
NOQ4 9:23733Turnover on downs31–31
CARQ4 6:441136Missed field goal31–31
NOQ4 1:56965Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen23/3625630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey22642.91
Curtis Samuel44010.00
Kyle Allen199.00
DJ Moore188.00
Alex Armah100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore691262
Christian McCaffrey99691
Greg Olsen57440
Curtis Samuel1490
Jarius Wright1140
Ian Thomas1240

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/3931131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray7649.11
Alvin Kamara11544.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas10111011
Jared Cook68991
Alvin Kamara99480
Ted Ginn25380
Tre'Quan Smith13131
Josh Hill11120
Taysom Hill1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.97