2019 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.014
- 43.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.159
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.42CPOE+2.32
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.8%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.01
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/28 | 313 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 8 | 184 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/46 | 271 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 5/9 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadree Ollison | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 14 | 85 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 8 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 1 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53