2019 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

35·22

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.014
  • 43.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.159
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.42CPOE+2.32
  • 42.2%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 71.0%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.01
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00668Field goal0–3
TBQ1 12:47211Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 12:07518Punt0–3
TBQ1 9:22598Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 6:45741Punt7–3
TBQ1 4:0033Turnover7–3
ATLQ1 3:17619Touchdown7–10
TBQ1 0:4638Punt7–10
ATLQ2 14:064-5Punt7–10
TBQ2 11:26761Touchdown13–10
ATLQ2 7:55613Punt13–10
TBQ2 4:441195Touchdown19–10
ATLQ2 0:4037Punt19–10
TBQ2 0:0500End of half19–10
TBQ3 15:00975Touchdown25–10
ATLQ3 10:58420Turnover25–10
TBQ3 9:1238Punt25–10
ATLQ3 7:361454Field goal25–13
TBQ3 1:40761Field goal28–13
ATLQ4 12:481255Field goal28–16
TBQ4 8:12513Punt28–16
ATLQ4 6:343-4Punt28–16
TBQ4 5:48517Punt28–16
ATLQ4 3:444-4Opp touchdown35–16
ATLQ4 3:061055Touchdown35–22
TBQ4 1:5000End of half35–22

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/2831332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones12514.31
Jameis Winston8384.80
Peyton Barber11322.90
Dare Ogunbowale11212.00
T.J. Logan122.00
Scott Miller1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.781842
Mike Evans48500
Breshad Perriman11440
Ronald Jones33160
O.J. Howard12100
Scott Miller1180
Cameron Brate0100
Peyton Barber0100
Dare Ogunbowale0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/4627101
Matt Schaub5/95510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Qadree Ollison8202.51
Calvin Ridley11515.00
Brian Hill9141.60
Matt Ryan188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley614851
Russell Gage810760
Julio Jones510680
Jaeden Graham12530
Christian Blake29160
Brian Hill34130
Kenjon Barner2280
Qadree Ollison1170
Luke Stocker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53