Closing spread
KC -10
Total
43
Model margin
+1.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.135
- 40.3%Success rate47.0%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.47CPOE+1.86
- 32.0%Third-down rate48.7%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.47Points / drive2.59
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 18/40 | 208 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/34 | 340 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 11 | 13 | 142 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 67 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.20