2019 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

3·23

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 24°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

43

Model margin

+1.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.135
  • 40.3%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.47CPOE+1.86
  • 32.0%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.59
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:42564Touchdown0–6
DENQ1 9:42818Punt0–6
KCQ1 4:451452Field goal0–9
DENQ2 12:5735Punt0–9
KCQ2 11:48969Field goal0–12
DENQ2 6:241061Field goal3–12
KCQ2 1:56953Field goal3–15
KCQ3 15:001075Touchdown3–23
DENQ3 9:45418Punt3–23
KCQ3 7:5737Punt3–23
DENQ3 6:05920Turnover3–23
KCQ3 2:14771Turnover3–23
DENQ4 13:241061Turnover on downs3–23
KCQ4 9:3634Punt3–23
DENQ4 7:551151Turnover on downs3–23
KCQ4 4:47625End of half3–23

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock18/4020801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay7324.60
Royce Freeman5122.40
Devontae Booker155.00
Drew Lock231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton410790
Noah Fant23560
Tim Patrick37260
Royce Freeman44140
DaeSean Hamilton29130
Troy Fumagalli1170
Jeff Heuerman0100
Phillip Lindsay0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/3434021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darwin Thompson8384.80
Spencer Ware7263.70
LeSean McCoy6162.70
Patrick Mahomes3113.70
Tyreek Hill111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce11131420
Tyreek Hill57672
Sammy Watkins34490
Blake Bell22410
Demarcus Robinson23210
Mecole Hardman12100
Spencer Ware2290
Darwin Thompson1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.20