Closing spread
NE -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.010
- 41.8%Success rate42.6%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.078
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.62CPOE-2.06
- 35.9%Third-down rate39.1%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/26 | 208 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 12 | 108 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/33 | 271 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.96