2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

28·22

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

48

Model margin

+3.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.000
  • 44.5%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.168
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +2.32CPOE+0.42
  • 41.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.86
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
ATLQ1 15:00865Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 10:3310Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 10:18620Field goal10–0
TBQ1 6:55444Missed field goal10–0
ATLQ1 4:3432Punt10–0
TBQ1 3:0133Punt10–0
ATLQ1 2:0348Turnover on downs10–0
TBQ1 0:381077Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 10:231340Field goal13–7
TBQ2 5:2020Turnover13–7
ATLQ2 5:0159Opp touchdown13–14
ATLQ2 3:07848Field goal16–14
TBQ2 0:58576Touchdown16–22
ATLQ2 0:1100End of half16–22
TBQ3 15:00550Missed field goal16–22
ATLQ3 11:25728Punt16–22
TBQ3 8:37949Missed field goal16–22
ATLQ3 4:211357Turnover on downs16–22
TBQ4 12:1244Punt16–22
ATLQ4 9:46837Field goal19–22
TBQ4 6:27626Punt19–22
ATLQ4 3:011360Field goal22–22
TBOT10Opp touchdown28–22

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/5131310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman18583.20
Brian Hill5214.20
Qadree Ollison492.30
Matt Ryan200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones713780
Russell Gage713680
Austin Hooper79450
Justin Hardy33400
Olamide Zaccheaus22220
Devonta Freeman24150
Luke Stocker11100
Christian Blake0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston13/2420122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones111069.60
John Franklin11111.00
Peyton Barber6101.70
Jameis Winston252.50
Dare Ogunbowale144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman581341
Justin Watson24270
Peyton Barber24250
Ronald Jones22100
Cyril Grayson1130
Cameron Brate1321
Tanner Hudson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.95