2019 · Week 17 · Division
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
48
Model margin
+3.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.000
- 44.5%Success rate43.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.168
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.0%
- +2.32CPOE+0.42
- 41.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 2.01Points / drive1.86
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/51 | 313 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 13 | 78 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 7 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 13/24 | 201 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 11 | 106 | 9.6 | 0 |
| John Franklin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 5 | 8 | 134 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cyril Grayson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95