Closing spread
NO -13.5
Total
45
Model margin
-4.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.082
- 47.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.172EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.92CPOE-2.45
- 43.9%Third-down rate32.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.45Points / drive1.56
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/30 | 253 | 3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 45 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ricky Ortiz | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 25/41 | 295 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Grier | 1/8 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Will Grier | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Zylstra | 6 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| DeAndrew White | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.84