2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

42·10

Panthers

Carolina

QB Will Grier

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NO -13.5

Total

45

Model margin

-4.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.082
  • 47.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.172EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.92CPOE-2.45
  • 43.9%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.56
  • 0.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 10:4832Punt7–0
NOQ1 10:0039Punt7–0
CARQ1 8:5437Punt7–0
NOQ1 7:221257Touchdown14–0
CARQ1 1:0135Punt14–0
NOQ2 14:4930Punt14–0
CARQ2 13:4642Turnover14–0
NOQ2 13:0732Punt20–0
CARQ2 12:1010Opp touchdown21–0
CARQ2 12:043-7Punt21–0
NOQ2 10:561050Touchdown28–0
CARQ2 6:27415Punt28–0
NOQ2 4:07474Touchdown35–0
CARQ2 2:111070Field goal35–3
NOQ2 0:3200End of half35–3
CARQ3 15:00511Punt35–3
NOQ3 13:07524Punt35–3
CARQ3 10:15527Punt35–3
NOQ3 8:16875Touchdown42–3
CARQ3 4:24975Touchdown42–10
NOQ3 0:32613Punt42–10
CARQ4 11:22747Turnover on downs42–10
NOQ4 8:3334Punt42–10
CARQ4 6:111475Turnover42–10
NOQ4 1:4800End of half42–10

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees19/3025330
Teddy Bridgewater1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray17613.60
Alvin Kamara8394.92
Deonte Harty2136.50
Taysom Hill242.00
Dwayne Washington221.00
Drew Brees1-1-1.00
Teddy Bridgewater3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre'Quan Smith55561
Taysom Hill11451
Jared Cook22441
Michael Thomas49370
Josh Hill35350
Alvin Kamara23180
Latavius Murray11140
Ted Ginn12100
Ricky Ortiz1180

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen25/4129501
Will Grier1/8401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey9262.91
Kyle Allen252.50
Will Grier351.70
Reggie Bonnafon231.50
Mike Davis221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Zylstra68960
Christian McCaffrey710720
Reggie Bonnafon22390
DeAndrew White25310
Chris Hogan24140
Curtis Samuel24130
Greg Olsen26120
Ian Thomas15120
Jarius Wright25100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.84