2020 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
NO -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Buccaneers
- DoubtfulMike EvansWRHamstring· Limited
- DNPNdamukong SuhDTNot Injury Related
Saints
- OutCesar RuizCAnkle· DNP
- OutMarcus DavenportDEElbow· DNP
- QuestionableP.J. WilliamsCBHamstring· Limited
- DNPBlake GillikinPBack
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.096
- 46.9%Success rate47.7%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.032EPA / rush+0.039
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.10CPOE+2.58
- 44.2%Third-down rate46.0%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.68Points / drive2.72
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:20 | 11 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:27 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 4:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 2:17 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 11:39 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:56 | 4 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TB | Q2 10:09 | 11 | 24 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 3:27 | 9 | 34 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| TB | Q2 0:44 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NO | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 22 | Opp touchdown | 7–24 |
| TB | Q3 13:13 | 3 | 30 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| NO | Q3 12:20 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TB | Q3 9:39 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NO | Q3 7:51 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TB | Q3 6:16 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| NO | Q3 2:22 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–24 |
| TB | Q3 0:07 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–24 |
| NO | Q4 14:03 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| TB | Q4 11:38 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| NO | Q4 11:37 | 1 | 4 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| NO | Q4 10:59 | 5 | 11 | Field goal | 17–34 |
| TB | Q4 8:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–34 |
| NO | Q4 7:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–34 |
| TB | Q4 5:59 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 23–34 |
| NO | Q4 2:41 | 6 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 23–34 |
| TB | Q4 0:23 | 1 | 11 | End of half | 23–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/36 | 239 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/30 | 160 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 16 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42