2020 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

17·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

TB -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+7.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.149
  • 45.8%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.032
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.88CPOE+3.10
  • 39.5%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.68
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:49749Turnover0–0
TBQ1 9:591081Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 5:4223Turnover0–13
TBQ1 4:45123Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 4:38616Punt0–14
TBQ1 1:081247Turnover0–14
CARQ2 10:06824Turnover on downs0–14
TBQ2 6:03765Touchdown0–21
CARQ2 3:01423Punt0–21
TBQ2 1:4548Punt0–21
CARQ2 0:402-6End of half0–21
CARQ3 15:0022Turnover0–21
TBQ3 14:1410Turnover0–21
CARQ3 14:01945Touchdown7–21
TBQ3 8:361011Punt7–21
CARQ3 4:441388Touchdown14–21
TBQ4 13:2557Punt14–21
CARQ4 11:52432Turnover14–21
TBQ4 10:10745Field goal14–24
CARQ4 6:13980Field goal17–24
TBQ4 1:57146Touchdown17–31
CARQ4 1:48871End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater33/4236702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey18593.32
Curtis Samuel4266.50
Mike Davis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore8131200
Robbie Chosen9101090
Mike Davis88740
Christian McCaffrey45290
Alex Armah11140
Curtis Samuel22130
Chris Manhertz1180

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3521711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette121038.62
Ronald Jones7233.31
Scott Miller111.00
Tom Brady100.00
LeSean McCoy1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans7101041
Justin Watson23480
LeSean McCoy57260
Leonard Fournette45130
O.J. Howard13110
Scott Miller23110
Ronald Jones2240
Rob Gronkowski0100
Cyril Grayson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.3%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.38