2020 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+7.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.149
- 45.8%Success rate46.9%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.032
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.88CPOE+3.10
- 39.5%Third-down rate44.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.21Points / drive2.68
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 33/42 | 367 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 13 | 120 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 9 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 8 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 12 | 103 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Ronald Jones | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 10 | 104 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cyril Grayson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.38