Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.042
- 45.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.88CPOE+1.23
- 39.5%Third-down rate43.8%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.21Points / drive2.28
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 27/36 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 8 | 12 | 112 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 93 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 9 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/37 | 226 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 121 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 10 | 136 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.61