2020 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

23·16

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.042
  • 45.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.88CPOE+1.23
  • 39.5%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.28
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:00529Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:551087Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:191369Field goal3–7
ATLQ1 0:57511Punt3–7
CARQ2 13:59752Field goal6–7
ATLQ2 9:06726Punt6–7
CARQ2 4:53588Touchdown13–7
ATLQ2 2:30512Punt13–7
CARQ2 1:34974Touchdown20–7
ATLQ2 0:2300End of half20–7
ATLQ3 15:00646Field goal20–10
CARQ3 12:19950Punt20–10
ATLQ3 5:171482Field goal20–13
CARQ4 14:4830Punt20–13
ATLQ4 14:221071Turnover20–13
CARQ4 8:491376Field goal23–13
ATLQ4 1:10639Field goal23–16
CARQ4 0:0400End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater27/3631320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis16895.60
Curtis Samuel4287.00
Teddy Bridgewater331.00
Robbie Chosen133.00
Alex Armah122.00
Trenton Cannon2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen8121120
DJ Moore45931
Mike Davis910601
Curtis Samuel55360
Pharoh Cooper11120
Ian Thomas0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3722601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley141218.61
Brian Hill6396.50
Ito Smith263.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley8101360
Todd Gurley45290
Russell Gage25160
Brian Hill22150
Olamide Zaccheaus14130
Hayden Hurst2680
Jaeden Graham1170
Luke Stocker1120
Brandon Powell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.61