Closing spread
NO -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+7.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.096
- 45.8%Success rate47.7%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.039
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.88CPOE+2.58
- 39.5%Third-down rate46.0%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.21Points / drive2.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/28 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 93 | 2 |
| Robbie Chosen | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/36 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 83 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 8 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+7.57