2020 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

25·17

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -1.5

Total

52

Model margin

+0.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.019
  • 44.3%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.23CPOE+2.88
  • 43.8%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.21
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00672Field goal3–0
CARQ1 11:14852Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 8:141162Field goal6–7
CARQ1 2:36416Punt6–7
ATLQ2 14:5310Turnover6–7
CARQ2 14:47440Touchdown6–14
ATLQ2 12:401075Touchdown13–14
CARQ2 8:02741Turnover on downs13–14
ATLQ2 3:55942Field goal16–14
CARQ3 15:00732Turnover on downs16–14
ATLQ3 11:321041Field goal19–14
CARQ3 6:221038Field goal19–17
ATLQ3 2:591170Touchdown25–17
CARQ4 11:01525Punt25–17
ATLQ4 8:201041Punt25–17
CARQ4 2:581060Turnover25–17
ATLQ4 0:5700End of half25–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3028101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Hill11555.00
Todd Gurley18462.61
Matt Ryan6274.51
Qadree Ollison133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones7101370
Hayden Hurst57540
Calvin Ridley34420
Russell Gage23250
Christian Blake22140
Brian Hill2390

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater15/2317611
PJ Walker1/4300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis13665.10
Teddy Bridgewater5306.00
Curtis Samuel3237.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore26550
Robbie Chosen58480
Curtis Samuel45311
Ian Thomas33280
Mike Davis12110
Chris Manhertz1160
Colin Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.72