Closing spread
CAR -1.5
Total
52
Model margin
+0.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.019
- 44.3%Success rate45.8%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.23CPOE+2.88
- 43.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.28Points / drive2.21
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/30 | 281 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 10 | 137 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 15/23 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 1/4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 2 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Colin Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.72