2020 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
51
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play+0.149
- 47.7%Success rate46.9%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.239
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.032
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.58CPOE+3.10
- 46.0%Third-down rate44.2%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.72Points / drive2.68
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/32 | 222 | 4 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/38 | 209 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.91