2020 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.019
- 46.9%Success rate45.8%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.10CPOE+2.88
- 44.2%Third-down rate39.5%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.68Points / drive2.21
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/39 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 23 | 192 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 6 | 92 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 6 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 18/24 | 136 | 2 | 1 |
| PJ Walker | 2/4 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Rodney Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Colin Thompson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.97