2020 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

46·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

-4.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.019
  • 46.9%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.10CPOE+2.88
  • 44.2%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 2.68Points / drive2.21
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:5827Turnover0–0
CARQ1 12:19733Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 8:191075Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 3:37475Touchdown7–14
TBQ1 1:451360Field goal10–14
CARQ2 9:591032Field goal10–17
TBQ2 3:56980Touchdown17–17
CARQ2 0:2735Punt17–17
TBQ3 15:001064Field goal20–17
CARQ3 10:58524Punt26–17
TBQ3 7:53198Touchdown26–17
CARQ3 7:3910Turnover26–17
TBQ3 7:311040Field goal29–17
CARQ3 3:10510Turnover on downs29–17
TBQ3 1:03713Field goal32–17
CARQ4 12:4024Touchdown32–23
TBQ4 11:23975Touchdown39–23
CARQ4 6:184-4Turnover on downs39–23
TBQ4 4:52421Touchdown46–23
CARQ4 4:2441Punt46–23
TBQ4 2:56211End of half46–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/3934130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones231928.31
Leonard Fournette8192.40
Tom Brady221.01
Blaine Gabbert300.00
Antonio Brown1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.66920
Mike Evans611771
Antonio Brown78690
Rob Gronkowski23511
Cameron Brate33311
Leonard Fournette23110
Ronald Jones1260
Scott Miller1140
Tyler Johnson0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater18/2413621
PJ Walker2/41200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis7324.60
Teddy Bridgewater3165.31
Rodney Smith3134.30
Curtis Samuel341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore47961
Robbie Chosen46210
Mike Davis45120
Curtis Samuel3580
Colin Thompson1171
Ian Thomas1170
Rodney Smith1120
Alex Armah22-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.97