2020 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

9·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.096
  • 44.3%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.148EPA / rush+0.039
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.23CPOE+2.58
  • 43.8%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.72
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00665Field goal3–0
NOQ1 11:2130Punt3–0
ATLQ1 9:423-1Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:17956Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 2:471037Field goal6–3
NOQ2 13:56635Missed field goal6–3
ATLQ2 11:0936Punt6–3
NOQ2 8:5734Punt6–3
ATLQ2 7:25736Field goal9–3
NOQ2 4:31780Touchdown9–10
ATLQ2 1:46918Turnover9–10
NOQ3 15:001075Touchdown9–17
ATLQ3 9:113-9Punt9–17
NOQ3 7:01622Punt9–17
ATLQ3 3:2233Punt9–17
NOQ3 1:41845Touchdown9–24
ATLQ4 12:4132Punt9–24
NOQ4 11:07541Turnover9–24
ATLQ4 8:111039Turnover9–24
NOQ4 5:03918Punt9–24
ATLQ4 0:59552End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3723202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley8263.30
Brian Hill4184.50
Ito Smith155.00
Brandon Powell133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley59900
Russell Gage712580
Julio Jones22390
Christian Blake24280
Olamide Zaccheaus11100
Todd Gurley1230
Luke Stocker0100
Hayden Hurst0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill18/2323300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray12494.10
Taysom Hill10494.92
Alvin Kamara13453.51
Deonte Harty12323.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas9121040
Emmanuel Sanders45660
Latavius Murray22360
Adam Trautman11190
Jared Cook1160
Deonte Harty1120
Alvin Kamara0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.93
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.62