Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.096
- 44.3%Success rate47.7%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.148EPA / rush+0.039
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.23CPOE+2.58
- 43.8%Third-down rate46.0%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.28Points / drive2.72
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/37 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 7 | 12 | 58 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 18/23 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.93
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.62