2020 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

21·16

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

-0.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.096EPA / play+0.042
  • 47.7%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.145
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.148
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.58CPOE+1.23
  • 46.0%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.72Points / drive2.28
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:3434Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:0834Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:34872Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 7:01640Field goal7–3
NOQ1 3:551575Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ2 11:5632Punt7–3
NOQ2 11:00732Turnover on downs7–3
ATLQ2 7:40752Field goal7–6
NOQ2 4:51885Touchdown14–6
ATLQ2 1:451048Field goal14–9
NOQ3 15:001275Touchdown21–9
ATLQ3 9:01631Punt21–9
NOQ3 6:05843Punt21–9
ATLQ3 0:5832Punt21–9
NOQ3 0:0133Punt21–9
ATLQ4 14:4420Turnover21–9
NOQ4 14:3468Turnover21–9
ATLQ4 11:091060Touchdown21–16
NOQ4 7:43521Punt21–16
ATLQ4 5:091165Turnover on downs21–16
NOQ4 1:3536Punt21–16
ATLQ4 0:27322End of half21–16

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill27/3723220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara15885.91
Taysom Hill14835.90
Latavius Murray5173.40
Tommylee Lewis11616.00
Tre'Quan Smith133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas9111050
Tre'Quan Smith36421
Emmanuel Sanders56390
Jared Cook35281
Alvin Kamara2390
Adam Trautman3390
Latavius Murray2200
Tommylee Lewis0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3927310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith8364.50
Brian Hill5183.60
Todd Gurley8162.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley5101080
Julio Jones610940
Russell Gage48511
Brandon Powell1190
Hayden Hurst1490
Todd Gurley1140
Jaeden Graham0100
Ito Smith12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.77