Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play+0.042
- 47.7%Success rate44.3%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.145
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.148
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.58CPOE+1.23
- 46.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.72Points / drive2.28
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 27/37 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 14 | 83 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/39 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 10 | 108 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.77