2020 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
-3.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.042
- 46.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.148
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.10CPOE+1.23
- 44.2%Third-down rate43.8%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.68Points / drive2.28
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/45 | 390 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 7 | 110 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 34/49 | 356 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 10 | 14 | 163 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.98