2020 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

31·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

-3.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.042
  • 46.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.148
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +3.10CPOE+1.23
  • 44.2%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.68Points / drive2.28
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:34526Punt0–7
ATLQ1 7:41746Punt0–7
TBQ1 3:31614Punt0–7
ATLQ1 0:0230Punt0–7
TBQ2 14:393-1Punt0–7
ATLQ2 12:571065Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 7:48922Punt0–14
ATLQ2 3:441275Field goal0–17
TBQ2 0:1500End of half0–17
TBQ3 15:00780Touchdown7–17
ATLQ3 11:28775Touchdown7–24
TBQ3 7:34875Touchdown14–24
ATLQ3 3:4434Punt14–24
TBQ3 2:53948Touchdown21–24
ATLQ3 0:053-6Punt21–24
TBQ4 14:25842Field goal24–24
ATLQ4 11:10541Field goal24–27
TBQ4 8:22478Touchdown31–27
ATLQ4 6:193-13Punt31–27
TBQ4 4:40424Punt31–27
ATLQ4 2:4447Turnover on downs31–27
TBQ4 2:02310End of half31–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady31/4539020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette14493.52
Ke'Shawn Vaughn242.00
Tom Brady2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans671100
Antonio Brown57931
Cameron Brate44540
Chris Godwin Jr.45361
LeSean McCoy33320
Rob Gronkowski37290
Scott Miller33200
Leonard Fournette35160
Tyler Johnson0100
Ke'Shawn Vaughn0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan34/4935630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith6244.00
Matt Ryan11616.00
Todd Gurley1-1-1.00
Brian Hill5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley10141631
Russell Gage510681
Luke Stocker23210
Hayden Hurst45211
Todd Gurley22150
Laquon Treadwell11140
Brian Hill2290
Ito Smith2390
Brandon Powell2450
Christian Blake11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.1%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.98