2020 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+6.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.149
- 44.3%Success rate46.9%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.032
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.23CPOE+3.10
- 43.8%Third-down rate44.2%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.28Points / drive2.68
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/44 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 9 | 94 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 9 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 12 | 52 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/41 | 399 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 15 | 138 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 7 | 133 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.47