2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·44

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TB -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

+6.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.149
  • 44.3%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.032
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.23CPOE+3.10
  • 43.8%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.68
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00768Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:061269Field goal3–7
TBQ1 3:33862Field goal3–10
ATLQ1 0:0734Punt3–10
TBQ2 14:44657Touchdown3–17
ATLQ2 12:30417Turnover3–17
TBQ2 11:11519Field goal3–20
ATLQ2 8:441455Touchdown10–20
TBQ2 1:56945Field goal10–23
ATLQ3 15:001175Touchdown17–23
TBQ3 8:49446Turnover17–23
ATLQ3 7:131576Field goal20–23
TBQ3 0:301065Touchdown20–30
ATLQ4 11:13675Touchdown27–30
TBQ4 8:19875Touchdown27–37
ATLQ4 3:54310Turnover27–37
TBQ4 3:11338Touchdown27–44
ATLQ4 2:5244Turnover on downs27–44
TBQ4 2:14311End of half27–44

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/4426520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Hill99410.40
Todd Gurley9182.00
Russell Gage11111.00
Ito Smith393.00
Matt Ryan310.31
Calvin Ridley1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage910911
Calvin Ridley812520
Brian Hill33420
Hayden Hurst46281
Todd Gurley12170
Laquon Treadwell23150
Luke Stocker11130
Ito Smith1470

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/4139941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones12786.51
Leonard Fournette5132.60
Tom Brady530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown11151382
Chris Godwin Jr.571332
Mike Evans34460
Rob Gronkowski24290
Tyler Johnson11160
Leonard Fournette22140
Scott Miller13120
Cameron Brate12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.47