Closing spread
NO -6
Total
47
Model margin
-3.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play+0.019
- 47.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.075
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.58CPOE+2.88
- 46.0%Third-down rate39.5%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.72Points / drive2.21
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/32 | 201 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 13 | 63 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 13/23 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
| PJ Walker | 5/14 | 95 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Smith | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tommy Stevens | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 11 | 118 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-3.84