Closing spread
NO -6
Total
47
Model margin
-3.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutJosh HillTEHand· DNP
- OutMarcus WilliamsSAnkle· DNP
Panthers
- DoubtfulBrian BurnsDEShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulChristian McCaffreyRBThigh· DNP
- DoubtfulMike DavisRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulRussell OkungTCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulTroy PrideCBHip· Limited
- QuestionableAustin LarkinDEShoulder· Full
- QuestionableEfe ObadaDEShoulder· Full
- QuestionableYetur Gross-MatosDEShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play+0.019
- 47.7%Success rate45.8%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.075
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.58CPOE+2.88
- 46.0%Third-down rate39.5%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.72Points / drive2.21
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:28 | 8 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 5:50 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:40 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 36 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:37 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| CAR | Q2 8:12 | 11 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| NO | Q2 2:47 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 19–7 |
| CAR | Q3 11:49 | 5 | 56 | Turnover | 19–7 |
| NO | Q3 9:35 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 19–7 |
| CAR | Q3 6:59 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 19–7 |
| NO | Q3 6:02 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 26–7 |
| CAR | Q3 4:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 26–7 |
| NO | Q3 4:22 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 33–7 |
| CAR | Q4 14:55 | 9 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 33–7 |
| NO | Q4 10:49 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 33–7 |
| CAR | Q4 8:06 | 6 | 56 | Turnover | 33–7 |
| NO | Q4 4:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 33–7 |
| CAR | Q4 2:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 33–7 |
| NO | Q4 2:13 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 33–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/32 | 201 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 13 | 63 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 13/23 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
| PJ Walker | 5/14 | 95 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Smith | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Tommy Stevens | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 11 | 118 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-3.84