2020 · DIV · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.096
- 46.9%Success rate47.7%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.032EPA / rush+0.039
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.10CPOE+2.58
- 44.2%Third-down rate46.0%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.68Points / drive2.72
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/33 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/34 | 134 | 1 | 3 |
| Jameis Winston | 1/1 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 85 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.34