2021 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -13.5
Total
52
Model margin
+8.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.143
- 41.2%Success rate49.9%
- -0.028EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.162EPA / rush+0.024
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.85CPOE+1.50
- 38.5%Third-down rate48.0%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.58Points / drive2.51
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 35/46 | 300 | 2 | 3 |
| Josh Rosen | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/36 | 276 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 75 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 39 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+8.42