2021 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

25·48

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TB -13.5

Total

52

Model margin

+8.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.076EPA / play+0.143
  • 41.2%Success rate49.9%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.162EPA / rush+0.024
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.85CPOE+1.50
  • 38.5%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.51
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 12:2237Punt0–7
TBQ1 11:13854Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 7:40622Punt0–7
TBQ1 3:5132Punt0–7
ATLQ1 2:5349Turnover on downs0–7
TBQ1 1:01630Touchdown0–14
ATLQ2 14:07566Touchdown7–14
TBQ2 11:48624Punt7–14
ATLQ2 10:05939Punt7–14
TBQ2 4:14885Touchdown7–21
ATLQ2 0:43522Field goal10–21
ATLQ3 15:0028Turnover10–21
TBQ3 14:19515Touchdown10–28
ATLQ3 12:431384Touchdown17–28
TBQ3 6:353-10Punt17–28
ATLQ3 4:41643Touchdown25–28
TBQ3 1:45817Punt25–28
ATLQ4 13:0436Punt25–28
TBQ4 10:53343Touchdown25–35
ATLQ4 9:1836Opp touchdown25–41
ATLQ4 7:53519Turnover on downs25–41
TBQ4 5:3949Turnover on downs25–47
ATLQ4 4:0810Opp touchdown25–48
ATLQ4 4:01617Turnover on downs25–48
TBQ4 1:5500End of half25–48

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan35/4630023
Josh Rosen0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis9384.20
Cordarrelle Patterson7111.61
Matt Ryan231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts56730
Calvin Ridley710631
Cordarrelle Patterson57581
Russell Gage57280
Mike Davis77250
Olamide Zaccheaus24220
Lee Smith1190
Tajae Sharpe1280
Christian Blake1180
Hayden Hurst1160
Parker Hesse0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3627650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette11524.70
Ronald Jones6274.50
Tom Brady166.00
Blaine Gabbert3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans59752
Chris Godwin Jr.45621
Rob Gronkowski45392
Leonard Fournette44240
O.J. Howard11210
Antonio Brown13170
Giovani Bernard22160
Ronald Jones1390
Cameron Brate1180
Tyler Johnson1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+8.42