2021 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

35·0

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+0.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.046
  • 47.4%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.180
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +1.95CPOE-0.02
  • 47.6%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.58
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:45246Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 12:33631Turnover on downs7–0
BUFQ1 10:41752Touchdown14–0
MIAQ1 7:0232Punt14–0
BUFQ1 5:16317Turnover14–0
MIAQ1 3:5141Turnover14–0
BUFQ1 1:563-1Punt14–0
MIAQ1 0:511463Turnover14–0
BUFQ2 9:53510Turnover14–0
MIAQ2 7:4649Turnover on downs14–0
BUFQ2 5:3839Punt14–0
MIAQ2 3:211047Punt14–0
BUFQ2 1:15413Punt14–0
BUFQ2 0:2937Missed field goal14–0
MIAQ2 0:0600End of half14–0
BUFQ3 15:00860Touchdown21–0
MIAQ3 11:48621Punt21–0
BUFQ3 8:5968Punt21–0
MIAQ3 6:21721Turnover on downs21–0
BUFQ3 3:591133Touchdown28–0
MIAQ4 13:383-11Punt28–0
BUFQ4 11:58862Touchdown35–0
MIAQ4 7:451340Turnover on downs35–0
BUFQ4 1:0800End of half35–0

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen17/3317921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary13826.31
Josh Allen5357.00
Zack Moss8263.32
Reggie Gilliam221.00
Mitchell Trubisky2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs48601
Emmanuel Sanders26480
Cole Beasley44360
Dawson Knox23171
Devin Singletary2390
Zack Moss2280
Isaiah McKenzie1210
Jake Kumerow0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett24/4016901
Tua Tagovailoa1/41300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin5255.00
Malcolm Brown5214.20
Salvon Ahmed6172.80
Jacoby Brissett482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle68480
DeVante Parker59420
Mike Gesicki36410
Myles Gaskin45210
Albert Wilson46200
Cethan Carter1180
Preston Williams1320
Jakeem Grant1100
Salvon Ahmed0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.06