Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+0.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.046
- 47.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.180
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.7%
- +1.95CPOE-0.02
- 47.6%Third-down rate41.1%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 2.52Points / drive1.58
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 17/33 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 24/40 | 169 | 0 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1/4 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.06