Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.051
- 44.6%Success rate40.2%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- +5.14CPOE-2.66
- 40.1%Third-down rate39.0%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.38Points / drive1.65
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 14/18 | 172 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 5 | 65 | 2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Chris Evans | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 38/58 | 318 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 19 | 102 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 9 | 15 | 96 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| James Washington | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Cody White | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35