Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
52
Model margin
+1.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.085
- 43.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.174
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.024
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- +4.08CPOE+1.73
- 37.3%Third-down rate40.6%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.12Points / drive2.30
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/23 | 149 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 14/23 | 165 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey Lance | 9/18 | 157 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Sermon | 19 | 89 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jacques Patrick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 13 | 156 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72