2021 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

28·21

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

52

Model margin

+1.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.085
  • 43.8%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.174
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.024
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +4.08CPOE+1.73
  • 37.3%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.30
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:48881Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 9:353-4Punt0–7
SFQ1 7:17518Turnover0–7
SEAQ1 5:203-5Punt0–7
SFQ1 3:38868Missed field goal0–7
SEAQ2 13:313-5Punt0–7
SFQ2 11:09827Punt0–7
SEAQ2 7:5231Punt0–7
SFQ2 6:2634Punt0–7
SEAQ2 4:49680Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 1:54521Punt7–7
SEAQ2 0:3827End of half7–7
SFQ3 15:00422Punt7–7
SEAQ3 12:14412Punt7–7
SFQ3 9:5736Punt7–7
SEAQ3 8:53766Touchdown14–7
SFQ3 5:2200Touchdown14–7
SEAQ3 5:16214Touchdown21–7
SFQ3 4:26489Touchdown21–13
SEAQ3 2:101253Touchdown28–13
SFQ4 12:0732Punt28–13
SEAQ4 10:3435Punt28–13
SFQ4 9:31829Turnover on downs28–13
SEAQ4 6:1236Punt28–13
SFQ4 4:301690Touchdown28–21
SEAQ4 1:2000End of half28–21

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2314920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins10444.41
Chris Carson13302.30
Russell Wilson4266.51
Travis Homer155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf48651
Alex Collins22340
Tyler Lockett45240
Freddie Swain34201
Will Dissly2250
Chris Carson1110

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo14/2316511
Trey Lance9/1815720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Sermon19894.70
Trey Lance7415.90
Jacques Patrick2126.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.8131562
George Kittle410400
Mohamed Sanu45350
Ross Dwelley11211
Brandon Aiyuk13150
Jauan Jennings11140
Trent Sherfield0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.72