2021 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

41·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.009
  • 44.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.14CPOE+0.31
  • 40.1%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.93
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:00836Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:1262Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:02723Field goal3–0
BALQ1 5:0834Punt3–0
CINQ1 4:0834Punt3–0
BALQ1 2:30750Field goal3–3
CINQ2 14:0339Punt3–3
BALQ2 11:42741Punt3–3
CINQ2 7:06264Touchdown10–3
BALQ2 6:291075Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 1:51863Field goal13–10
BALQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
BALQ3 15:00375Touchdown13–17
CINQ3 13:20475Touchdown20–17
BALQ3 11:06734Punt20–17
CINQ3 7:27390Touchdown27–17
BALQ3 5:48410Punt27–17
CINQ3 3:371169Turnover27–17
BALQ4 14:51928Turnover on downs27–17
CINQ4 11:39438Touchdown34–17
BALQ4 9:24529Turnover on downs34–17
CINQ4 7:53249Touchdown41–17
BALQ4 6:593-1Punt41–17
CINQ4 6:153-5Punt41–17
BALQ4 3:49840Turnover on downs41–17
CINQ4 2:1245Turnover on downs41–17
BALQ4 0:2116End of half41–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3841631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon12594.91
Samaje Perine11524.71
Joe Burrow100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase8102011
C.J. Uzomah33912
Tee Higgins715620
Tyler Boyd47390
Samaje Perine11230

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/3125710
Tyler Huntley5/113900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson12887.30
Devonta Freeman4143.51
Ty'Son Williams2105.00
Le'Veon Bell551.00
Devin Duvernay1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown514801
Rashod Bateman36800
Mark Andrews37480
Josh Oliver25290
Devonta Freeman33250
Ty'Son Williams22240
Devin Duvernay11110
James Proche0100
Le'Veon Bell12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.53