Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.009
- 44.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.14CPOE+0.31
- 40.1%Third-down rate36.5%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.38Points / drive1.93
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/38 | 416 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8 | 10 | 201 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 91 | 2 |
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 15 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/31 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 5/11 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 14 | 80 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53