Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.076
- 41.2%Success rate41.2%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.028
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.162
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -7.50CPOE+0.85
- 36.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.43Points / drive1.58
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 13/24 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 24 | 82 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/27 | 146 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajae Sharpe | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73