2021 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

19·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.076
  • 41.2%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback-0.028
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.162
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -7.50CPOE+0.85
  • 36.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.58
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
CARQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:563-2Field goal0–3
CARQ1 13:301464Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 6:1338Punt3–3
CARQ1 4:4838Punt3–3
ATLQ1 3:21953Touchdown3–10
CARQ2 13:58852Field goal6–10
ATLQ2 9:131143Turnover6–10
CARQ2 3:32621Punt6–10
ATLQ2 1:4439Punt6–10
CARQ2 0:24434Field goal9–10
ATLQ3 15:00420Punt9–10
CARQ3 12:151673Field goal12–10
ATLQ3 3:33935Missed field goal12–10
CARQ4 14:101570Touchdown19–10
ATLQ4 6:303-8Punt19–10
CARQ4 5:0535Punt19–10
ATLQ4 3:07645Turnover19–10
CARQ4 1:5236Punt19–10
ATLQ4 0:50210Field goal19–13
CARQ4 0:1600End of half19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold13/2412900
PJ Walker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard24823.41
Sam Darnold8668.30
Ameer Abdullah8313.90
Royce Freeman6254.20
PJ Walker1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore48590
Ameer Abdullah35350
Tommy Tremble34180
Ian Thomas11100
Chuba Hubbard1290
Robbie Chosen0100
Keith Kirkwood0100
Royce Freeman0100
Shi Smith11-20

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/2714612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis9444.90
Cordarrelle Patterson9353.90
Matt Ryan231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tajae Sharpe56580
Cordarrelle Patterson55371
Mike Davis56220
Kyle Pitts26130
Olamide Zaccheaus11120
Hayden Hurst2340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.73