Closing spread
BUF -15
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.091
- 41.8%Success rate47.4%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.048
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.02CPOE+1.95
- 41.1%Third-down rate47.6%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.58Points / drive2.52
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/39 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 8 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 29/42 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 10 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.83