2021 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

11·26

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 54°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -15

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.091
  • 41.8%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.028EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.180EPA / rush-0.048
  • 6.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.02CPOE+1.95
  • 41.1%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.52
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:251156Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 8:06640Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 3:48926Punt0–3
BUFQ2 14:43419Punt0–3
MIAQ2 12:01632Field goal3–3
BUFQ2 8:10423Punt3–3
MIAQ2 6:38939Punt3–3
BUFQ2 2:02736Turnover on downs3–3
MIAQ2 0:46514Turnover3–3
BUFQ2 0:1100End of half3–3
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt3–3
BUFQ3 12:503-2Punt3–3
MIAQ3 11:563-1Punt3–3
BUFQ3 10:551682Touchdown3–10
MIAQ3 3:4938Punt3–10
BUFQ3 2:121069Touchdown3–17
MIAQ4 13:231270Touchdown11–17
BUFQ4 9:391569Field goal11–20
MIAQ4 3:2954Turnover11–20
BUFQ4 2:21311Touchdown11–26
MIAQ4 1:0725End of half11–26

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3920501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin12363.00
Salvon Ahmed7223.10
Tua Tagovailoa4102.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker811850
Mike Gesicki34480
Jaylen Waddle411290
Myles Gaskin34190
Patrick Laird11100
Adam Shaheen1180
Salvon Ahmed1260
Isaiah Ford0100
Mack Hollins0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen29/4224920
Cole Beasley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen8556.91
Devin Singletary7284.00
Zack Moss8192.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley10131100
Stefon Diggs57401
Zack Moss67390
Tommy Sweeney34300
Gabe Davis45291
Devin Singletary1110
Emmanuel Sanders0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +157.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.83